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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
34	member 12/13/24 6:10PM Re: WSJ Article...Joe's Last Hurrah / CLMT? 33
100% Angus. I think we'll get the final close announcement by the end of next week and certainly by the first week of January. I'd prefer the money in the door by year end but... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
31	member 12/04/24 12:00PM Re: CLMT, re Biden's decision not to finalize on clean fuel tax credit before he leaves WH...issue or yawn? 29
My pleasure Angus - and yeah, officially a nothing burger. One last gift to lean into before liftoff with final approval and receipt of funds prior to year-end https://x.com/biofuelslaw/status/1864071987787661587 view available tags
28	member 11/14/24 10:38PM Re: Re: Re: Re: CLMT weakness ahead of Friday? 27
Of course even if the Trump admin wanted to gut the IRA it hardly matters. For anyone interested in verifying that for themselves, IR communicated to us a few key things. First, that the doe... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
27	member 11/14/24 9:20PM Re: Re: Re: CLMT weakness ahead of Friday? 26
Back to spoon feed the obvious again. This time from Chuck Grassley. AAOI 1 view available tags
26	member 11/13/24 2:40PM Re: Re: CLMT weakness ahead of Friday? 24
Another SAF champion is now the new Republican Senate majority leader. Hopefully we'll get confirmation on Burgum soon. Hell, at this point a Trump administration might actually be superior to the Biden admin on all... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
25	member 11/13/24 2:08PM New DOE SAF White Paper
https://liftoff.energy.gov/sustainable-aviation-fuel/ LFG gents!! Reads like paid marketing for MRL. “To establish commercial viability 10 year off take agreements must be normalized” In any case, odds that MRL has signed LT off-take agreements in hand are even higher than 3 view available tags
24	member 11/07/24 2:22PM Re: CLMT weakness ahead of Friday? 22
Happy to discuss all the nuances, but I think the probability Trump repeals IRA and rescinds DOE loans is extremely low, which is why we were buying more calls into the close yesterday. For what... login to read the rest 8 view available tags
20	member 11/03/24 8:24AM Re: Neste comments on limited voluntary SAF demand; Feedstocks 14
Hi BenHillGriffin, I think you're reading the underlying dynamic wrong. I chuckled when I read the company's comments given the real reason Neste is pulling back is because RD imports (supply) are getting dramatically reduced... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
19	member 11/03/24 7:42AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Ground hog day 18
Thanks for the kind words InfrmtnOverflow! On the duration of their existing off-take agreements, I don't think, I know they have multi-year contracts with Shell. Management, correctly imo, keeps the details of these 3-year contracts... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
18	member 11/02/24 9:40PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Ground hog day 17
Interesting find on the Shell point. Do you think Shell has long-term offtake agreements for large volumes of SAF from MRL or more short term limited commitments? Its difficult to say with conviction based on some of... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
17	member 11/01/24 10:32PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Ground hog day 12
So...yes, in theory all of the RD guys have convertible capacity - and yes, a massive shift from RD towards SAF would definitely improve RD margins (or it could be due to a massive drop... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
12	member 11/01/24 9:03AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Ground hog day 11
so... in theory, all of the RD guys have convertible capacity? they are mostly owned by refineries which generate substantial cash (maybe not lately) and are anxious to find a viable business in a post-oil... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
11	member 11/01/24 12:17AM Re: Re: Re: Ground hog day 10
Bingo view available tags
10	member 10/31/24 10:56PM Re: Re: Ground hog day 8
Ok. one part first mover, one part more durable economics over time. Thx. 2 view available tags
9	member 10/31/24 4:56PM Re: Re: Ground hog day 4
Hi gtwt, see my response to Motherlode... 1 view available tags
8	member 10/31/24 4:55PM Re: Ground hog day 3
I'll need to go back and check my notes to double check the details but your premise isn't correct. The first ten years for RD's first movers were wildly successful, not to mention the likely... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
7	member 10/31/24 4:43PM UBS Thoughts on California's new SAF Agreement with the airlines
Demand growth continues to far outstrip known supply... “North American Biofuels CARB Announces SAF Agreement with Leading Airlines What happened? California announced an agreement with leading airlines to accelerate SAF for flights within the state. CARB and Airlines for... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
6	member 10/31/24 4:37PM Re: You failed to mention... 2
Indeed. Good things happen, pricing wise, when half the RD supply gets cut in half year over year. view available tags
5	member 10/31/24 4:33PM Re: Idiot management 1
Ha, for the sake of speed I left quite a bit out, but agreed the inventory unwind to prevent paying out on the October chain blew my brain apart until I figured out what was 1 view available tags
3	member 10/30/24 7:56PM Ground hog day
Why doesn’t this end like RD? Over supplied before anyone has made any real money 2 view available tags

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			2024	2025
Price:	20.20	EPS	-1.91	.18
Shares Out. (in M):	86	P/E	na	na
Market Cap (in $M):	1,740	P/FCF	na	na
Net Debt (in $M):	2,028	EBIT	85	388
TEV (in $M):	3,778	TEV/EBIT	44	9.8

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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