2015 | 2016 | ||||||
Price: | 23.00 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 375 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 8,619 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 |
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The catalyst here is the realization of cash flow return to shareholders made possible by visibility and realization in actual earnings. The stock price cannot ignore actual cash returns to sharedholder of this magnitude without drastically decreasing the fair EBITDA multiple at which the stock trades (i.e. EV will decline materially while EBITDA grows).
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8 | |
Any update? stock is way down but seems to have bottomed. Still interesting? | |
6 | |
nice write up. perhaps mr. market is valuing the fully taxed numbers (about 1.50 a share) at 11x (9% fcf) plus 5 for the NOL? | |
5 | |
Biffins, mosts of the CtoG switching gains for CPN would probably be realized in ERCOT. so coal plants in that region would be ceding market share to CPN. In PJM, I've read that Western PJM is where the most incremental CtoG swtiching can be realized. CPN's plants are geographically situated in Eastern PJM, so the market share gain with low Marcellus basis is questionable. But i guess my point is that on a portfolio-wide basis, lower gas prices (and therefore power prices) are hedged by increased utilization for CPN, so the conclusion is that the free cash flow yield is sustainable. tx for the comments.
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4 | |
Thanks for the details on the FCF and capex. I was using Consensus numbers for EBITDA and capex, but did not scrutinize the details. Will definitely take a closer look at the numbers. tx for the headsup on the NOL. |
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