BLUELINX HOLDINGS INC BXC
September 02, 2020 - 10:13pm EST by
member
| 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Price: | 20.50 | EPS | 3.40 | 6.00 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 9 | P/E | 6.1 | 3.4 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 193 | P/FCF | 11.6 | 3.0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 368 | EBIT | 85 | 113 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 561 | TEV/EBIT | 6.6 | 5.0 | |||
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| 146 | |
Ya we really wanna get there on this but when 1) the last 4 weeks have seen specialty volumes accelerate down to over 20% and 2) LT margin targets always required some management trust and | |
| 141 | |
Hm its just weird that they'd want to push Dwight out quickly given biz has performed well, particularly in this downturn. You think BXC could be an M&A target? I'd imagine PE would be interested. | |
| 139 | |
What do you make of this? Very bizarre he's being replaced by the Chief Legal officer as CEO. | |
| 135 | |
Thank you. I've owned some for a while, thanks to your posting back when. The sell-off makes some sense in the context of the run, post BLDR. That said, I'm impressed with relatively new mgmt.,... login to read the rest | |
| 131 | |
Also one small interesting tidbit, per BLDR CFO, BLDR is BXC's single largest customer, so BXC will benefit from BLDR's growth and they're very loosely tied at the hip. | |
| 130 | |
Another major difference between the two is BXC's higher mix of R&R exposure, ~45% vs ~10% for BLDR, I believe. Repair and remodel will be very stable or even grow while new home starts may... login to read the rest | |
| 129 | |
BLDR CEO has been there for 5 quarters and is also doing a lot to improve things. I think BXC is great, so don't get me wrong, just wonder why BLDR isn't better. The scale... login to read the rest | |
| 124 | |
curious how you are continuing to think of this name on the outer years with $30 eps in '21...are you penciling in $16 in eps for '23 and '24? I can't really see a better... login to read the rest | |
| 120 | |
Wow...Thank you, Katana for update. Crazy cheap. Post call, I'd of course be interested in anything else you care to add...or not! | |
| 117 | |
katana - thanks for your ongoing coverage here. how does the stock price affect your affinity/lack thereof for M&A vs stock buyback? eg arent you much more 'unhappy' with M&A when the stock is at... login to read the rest | |
| 115 | |
Nothing to see here other than algos selling based on rising 10 yr and declining lumber chart? Curious if the board is sitll thinking about this as a $16 earner in a normalized environment with... login to read the rest | |
| 114 | |
Jumbos--just seeing this so chiming in here with my 2 cents. Medium term I'd pencil in 20% gross margins on their Specialty Products side and a reversion to 9% for Structural Products. Depending on the... login to read the rest | |
| 109 | |
For many reasons. For one, inventory is at an all time low and dropping like a rock. We could build at the current pace for over two years straight without a single new home being... login to read the rest | |
| 106 | |
@katana - I'm assuming the selloff today was at least partly related to a lack of capital return here...given your proximity to the situation, curious what you envision in terms of capital being returned? | |
| 105 | |
BXC could lever back up just one turn here and buy back ~60% of the stock. I think that is a better use of capital than buying another distributor and will push management pretty hard | |
| 102 | |
Same sell off in BCC. Algo mania. | |
| 101 | |
anything on the call to explain the selloff?
So...their yoy eps growth is going to be 6x... | |
| 100 | |
Q1 EPS likely be closer to $12 IMO, above the full year estimates. | |
| 96 | |
since we're on the topic of Ivy Zelman, what do you guys think about her non-rates-based bearish argument? says this homebuilding boom could be in final innings:
US population growth is slowing
"frenzy created by plunging mortgage... login to read the rest | |
| 91 | |
Wondering how the board is thinking about BXC in the context of rising rates but still elevated lumber prices. Perhaps multiple contraction outweighing any earnings lift from lumber? Stock is already down ~20% this year... | |
| 89 | |
katana, are lumber futures hedgeable/tradeable (beyond the front month)? is this a real signal of what is earnable and if so why wouldn't BXC (and anyone else structurally long lumber) not immediately lock in these... login to read the rest | |
| 87 | |
Makes sense, thanks. Was certainly not trying to nitpick, just highlight how good it could be if the macro generally remains the same (lots of other important variables like multi-family starts vs single family, etc.).... login to read the rest | |
| 85 | |
It could actually be a lot better than $25 in EPS without heroic assumptions. If Structural Products volume + pricing looks like Q1 2021 but gross margins hold at 10% versus 15.5% then, and Specialty Products... login to read the rest | |
| 79 | |
i have noticed this increasing phenomenon in cyclical portions of the market, whereby the market gives basically zero credit to current conditions and appears to be pricing in a rapid if not instantaneous return to... login to read the rest | |
| 77 | |
Wow, return that capital! | |
| 76 | |
Some strange options volumes today that maybe hitting stock. Looks like a lot of chepa August 30 and 35 Puts were bought. COuld be someone taking a shot at a blow up on lumber drop... login to read the rest | |
| 72 | |
rjm,
The volatility in building material prices has made modeling the numbers here an impossibility with any reasonable accuracy. Lumber prices soared from 1100 to 1700 in two weeks and have come back down to 1100. ... login to read the rest | |
| 71 | |
You mentioned you likely won't be a seller this year, do you mind sharing your PT? Strong mgmt with leading market share in strong underlying market conditions that has had what would seem like a temp... login to read the rest | |
| 69 | |
Katana,
Do you or anyone understand the trading in BXC the last month. What type of buyers runs up the shares from $55 to $70 in two days and then sells it back down to $50... login to read the rest | |
| 67 | |
I think buying back there real estate unless I am mistaken, will cost 30% more than when they what they sold it for. No thanks. In my opinion, you pay down the revolver as a... login to read the rest | |