BANKFIRST CAPITAL CORP BFCC
February 21, 2023 - 7:36pm EST by
member
| 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Price: | 41.00 | EPS | 6.35 | 7 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 5 | P/E | 6.4 | 5.8 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 220 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 45 | 50 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 49 | |
Ok thanks, I was just looking at autofeed comp sheet which must have a mistake. | |
| 48 | |
How are you getting to a 6x EBITDA multiple? I have them at ~9x 2019 EBITDA. I have PAA at ~10x and EPD at ~11x. I think that discount is about what is has been over the... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
My sense is this now trades wider than ever to the group, which itself is beaten down - is this accurate? Seems like the equity multiple is now 1x on top of roughly 5x on... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
You can count on this guy and his rapacity shining through.
After all, he bought the naming rights for the equivalent of central park in Dallas and named it after his 8 year son - how's | |
| 45 | |
Great color, thank you. Fwiw I decided to pass. This guy is out of control. Even in the moment when he is supposedly making nice with investors by offering ETP a modest premium after years... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
ETE/ETP have traded at a discount to the space for several years. You can easily point to the "Kelcy discount" as well as the excessive leverage, but I think it is also driven by a... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
Agree leverage is a bit higher than EPD, MPLX, etc but EV/EBITDA still at a 20-25% discount to these guys (and ETE trades at 8x DCF).
I have coverage on new ETE at 1.8x.
I am yet... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
A couple observations:
leverage: ETe/ETP still more levered which will drive a lower P/DCF multiple.
Growth: those other names (EPD/MMP/MPLX) are growing DCF/share 5-8% without issuing equity to fund growth because strong coverage and low leverage. ... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
The simplicity of this observation makes me feel like a prisoner in a cartoon who’s been sitting for three years in an unlocked cell. Yes. I think it’s that easy. | |
| 40 | |
The average P/DCF multiples implied by consensus estimates for a basket of comps (EPD/OKE/MPLX/MMP/WMB) for 2019/20/21 are 12.2x/11.1/10.5x. ETE projects pro forma DCF/unit of $2.22/2.19/2.31 in those years. If I apply the comp multiples to... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
Why did Kelcy buy ETP instead of ETE ? | |
| 38 | |
is there any reason to buy ete vs etp given there is still a small spread and you get a larger divi while you wait? I guess the question is whether there is any possible... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
I know Kelcy is rich, but $45m still seems like a strong statement. | |
| 36 | |
Just long ETP / short ETE into deal close for the spread. After deal announced, positions had to be put on. | |
| 35 | |
Very interesting. What about the arbs do you think drove this trading dynamic? | |
| 34 | |
Not sure of the question really, but pro-forma ETE trading at 10.0x EV/EBITDA vs pro-forma WMB, EPD, MPLX trading high-11x to low 13x and all around 13.5x unleveraged FCF. EBITDA and unleveraged DCF comps imply | |
| 33 | |
4.7x. And you can reverse engineer into that based on the S4 that just came out as well. | |
| 32 | |
How do you get to a higher upside for ETE if ETE is buying ETP units at a premium in an all stock deal? Also, what do you thin is the right multiple? EPD has... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Pro-forma for the deal, how does 2019 leverage look (defining EBITDA as DCF + maintenance CAPEX + interest expense to take into account consolidated and unconsolidated entities). Thanks in advance. | |
| 30 | |
Using WMB/WPZ as a guide, should be within a couple days of arbs letting up. Been interesting to see trading dynamic unfold very similarly from initial announcement. | |
| 29 | |
Thank you. Thought I might be missing something. I still have yet to find a real reason why that discount shouldn't collapse. Perhaps a c-corp announcement / intention to raise distribution at a theoretical leverage... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
I agree. Quarter was great. Major projects are coming online. Delevering. Kelcy less of an adversary to public investors. Story will be much simpler. Growth outlook is great. Stock trades at 30% discount to arguably... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Yellowhouse, results looked pretty darn solid. Almost seems like Street DCF esimates for ETP in 2019 are going to come true in 2018. Any thoughts? | |
| 26 | |
Kelcy Warren did the unthinkable. He treated minority investors fairly at his personal expense in what will undoubtedly be the largest M&A deal of his career. I am certain that on some pig farm in... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
Why would Kelcy telegraph this transaction, and then go ahead and offer ETP a 10% premium following the outperformance of ETP over ETE? Doesn't make common sense, and really doesn't make sense given his track | |
| 24 | |
Wouldn't MPLX be the primary beneficiary of a ME2 JV?
Agree AM likely participates in a JV, but they are tied up with MPLX with a JV of their own, so any AM involvement likely requires... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Antero would be the most logical strategic partner. This is from their Q4 call.
<Q - Ethan Heyward Bellamy>: Okay. And then hypothetically speaking I can see some strategic rationale for taking a stake in ME2... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
Thanks, who do you think the primary JV partner would be for ME2? | |
| 21 | |
http://www.puc.state.pa.us/about_puc/press_releases.aspx?ShowPR=4024
ME1 is back online. With the risk from sinkholes more or less mitigated at this point, I think ME2 is good to go. I expect that once it is online you are likely to see... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
closing arguments for the ETE preferred litigation were last monday. i went ahead and bought the transcript. it is rather clear to me that judge glasscock sees that these preferreds were self-serving. given that the... login to read the rest | |