Arriscraft International write-up
If a micro-cap Canadian income trust suspended its
distribution, would anyone want to own it? And if it then reinstated its
distribution a year later, would anyone notice? Those are the kinds of
questions surrounding Arriscraft International Income Fund, a Canadian company
engaged in the sexy growth business of manufacturing fake rock. Trading at
C$4.50 per unit today, for a valuation of C$36MM, the company is yielding over
9% on current distributions, distributions that are amply covered by current
cash flows. The trailing twelve month free cash flow yield is 20%. More
importantly, margins hit historical lows last year and have only begun trending
up; assuming traditional margins and taking into account an upcoming growth initiative
that will receive a go/no go decision by the end of the year, there is reason
to believe that distributable cash flow will double and cash distributions will
triple within the next 36 months, hoisting the stock’s price up close to its
intrinsic value of greater than $10. Combined with the distribution income,
this would produce a triple digit gain and very attractive IRR for equity
holders purchasing at today’s prices.
**all dollar amounts are CAD unless otherwise noted**
The Business and the Background
Arriscraft was founded in Ontario in 1956 to commercialize a process
for manufacturing synthetic stone to use as masonry, wall cladding, and other building
material applications. Today, the company operates manufacturing facilities at
three locations in North America. At the
oldest plant, in Cambridge,
Ontario, the company operates
four press units, making it the company’s largest and most efficient plant. In Saint-Etienne-des-Gres, Quebec
and in Fort Valley, Georgia, the company operates one
press unit at each location. Both of the Canadian facilities supply customers
on either side of the border; Georgia,
clearly, is targeted exclusively at the US market. The Georgia
facility was completed only in 2004, and spent much of 2005 working through process
improvements that limited its productivity. Those startup hiccups are now in
the past, as management indicates that the plant is operating near the levels
of productivity of its Canadian operations. What’s more, there are plans to
expand Georgia
by one or more press units, a topic which we’ll cover later in this write-up.
The company’s products, which are unique, occupy a niche in
the building material market. Wall cladding and masonry can be classified as
either: (i) “full bed” masonry products, which are typically 3” to 4” thick and
are laid by a brick layer or stone mason in a mortar bed, and (ii) “thin set”
or “adhered” masonry products, which are thin brick or stone units (or tiles)
that are adhered to a supporting wall. Architects must specify which technique
to use in the design phase. Full bed masonry construction is generally thought
of as higher quality construction that thin set masonry construction, just as
hardwood flooring is considered superior to laminate flooring.
Arriscraft produces exclusively full bed manufactured
masonry. Cheaper than natural stone but more expensive than thin set “painted”
cement, manufactured stone offers the aesthetic appeal, durability, and
identical installation methods of natural stone, at a cost that is typically
one third to one half that of the natural material. Arriscraft products are
also available in infinite color and pattern varieties, regardless of
geographic location – an attribute that natural stone cannot match, due to
transportation costs and the locations of quarries. The following tables
summarize the company’s product positioning:
|
Cement or concrete
|
Stone
|
Thin set
|
Eldorado, Cultured Stone, Coronado, Continental Cast Stone
+ dozens others
|
N/A
|
Full bed
|
Century Stone, few others
|
Arriscraft, natural stone vendors
|
|
Natural stone
|
Arriscraft
|
Painted cement
|
Cost
|
High
|
Medium
|
Low
|
Aesthetic appeal
|
High
|
High
|
Medium
|
Durability
|
High
|
High
|
Low
|
Ease of installation
|
Medium
|
Identical to natural stone
|
Easy
|
Moisture resistance
|
High
|
High
|
Low
|
Range of patterns and colors
|
Limited by geography
|
High
|
High
|
Warranty coverage
|
Depends on vendor
|
100 years
|
Depends on vendor, but can be very low
|
At first glance, it’s easy to dismiss the company’s
competitive positioning. However, it’s worthwhile to note that its products,
which are chemically identical to natural stone (they are made from the same
sources: coarse and fine silica sands, lime, and a dollop of tender loving care
in the form of heat and compression) cost just one third to one half the cost
of the natural stone products they are designed to mimic; the variation in the
discounts has to do with the costs for different types of stone. Arriscraft
management tells me that they often win designs in new projects after their
customers have incurred cost overruns. When the value engineers come in to try
to take out costs, one of the easiest ways for them to do so – without
compromising the structural or aesthetic integrity of the building project – is
to simply substitute inexpensive Arriscraft Natural Edge cladding for the
expensive real stone product.
The company has no shortage of competitors. Builder
Magazine, which concerns itself with the affairs of the homebuilding
industry, reports that its readers regard Cultured Stone (a unit of Owens
Corning), Eldorado Stone, and Coronado Stone as the premier brands in the United States.
As indicated above, each of these companies offers a product inferior to Arriscraft,
because each offers a cement-based, low density, thin set product, which is
nothing more than a texture painted on a thin slab of cement. If by chance, a
stray bullet or a speeding eight-year-old were to nick the stone, the cement-based
products would reveal grey cement underneath, but the Arriscraft products would
look the same, because their texture and color are properties of the material
itself, not a thin coat of paint.
While acknowledging the existence of competitors like
Cultured Stone and Eldorado, the company maintains that they are the only
supplier of full bed, chemically identical manufactured stone, a claim I have
been unable to disprove. They are also the largest supplier of full bed
manufactured masonry, of any type, in North America.
The closest competitor may be Century Stone, a small private Canadian company
that offers full bed cement-based stone substitutes; there are bound to be
similar small private companies in the US that I haven’t turned up yet. Nonetheless,
Arriscraft’s product is unpatented and protected only by trade secret and
know-how, a protection that is self-evidently meaningful, as the company has
now sold its product for 50 years without imitation.
2004 IPO and 2005 troubles: Not quite the Rookie of the
Year
Arriscraft didn’t come public with the pre-IPO clumsiness of
Google or the post-IPO existential absurdity of Vonage, but it came pretty
close. The company IPO’d in December 2004, and promptly set upon a distribution
schedule of C$0.30 per quarter. As for timing, the housing market in Eastern
Canada began rolling over (Ontario housing
starts down 8% and Quebec
down 13%) and the Canadian loonie began to take off at around the same time,
hurting Arriscraft’s earnings. These problems were simultaneous with production
problems at the Georgia
plant during its first year of operations. Hindsight renders the effects of
these factors obvious – here’s a table of distributable cash flow per unit and
actual distributions in 2005.
All $ are CAD
|
Q1 2005
|
Q2 2005
|
Q3 2005
|
Q4 2005
|
Distributable cash per unit
|
$0.097
|
$0.106
|
$0.304
|
$0.144
|
Distributions declared per unit
|
$0.300
|
$0.300
|
--
|
--
|
It does not take a VIC member to spot the problem here,
especially for a company with approximately $0.70 per share of cash on December
31, 2004. Accordingly, management suspended the distributions in the summer of
2005, causing the stock to plummet from $10 or so to $4 or so. At the same
time, the company replaced a credit facility with outside lenders with a new
one from the previous owners of the company. The new credit facility is a $16MM
subordinated unsecured debenture that carries interest at 4% for the first two
years (through July 2007) and then at prime + 2% thereafter. The debenture is
convertible into Arriscraft units at $9.50 per share, though it is redeemable
before conversion at the company’s option.
In the fall of 2005 – as the stock hovered in the $3.50 to
$4.00 range – a gentleman by the name of Saul Koschitzky used his company, IKO
Enterprises, to acquire 16.7% of the outstanding units of Arriscraft. IKO is a
leading roofing supply company based in Canada; evidently, Koschitzky saw
an obvious bargain in an industry he knew well, and decided to buy the stock.
Fearing a takeover below intrinsic value, the board approved a unitholder
rights plan to prevent Koschitzky from acquiring any more stock. There have
been no filings since December 13, 2005 to indicate that Koschitzky has bought
or sold any stock since then. Incidentally, the Koschitzky family appears on
the Canadian equivalent to the Forbes 400 list.
A New Sheriff Arrives in Town
In December 2005, the board of Arriscraft recruited David
Boles to be the company’s new CEO. Boles was formerly COO of the North American
division of Qeubecor World, a large commercial printer. Boles’s division had
revenue of more than $5 billion, which makes him more than qualified to run an
$80 million company like Arriscraft. With only six months on the job, his
handiwork is already impressive:
|
|
Six
months ended
|
|
Six
months ended
|
|
|
|
30-Jun-05
|
Common
size
|
|
30-Jun-06
|
Common
size
|
Growth
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sales
|
|
33,063
|
100.00%
|
|
37,929
|
100.00%
|
14.72%
|
COGS
|
|
18,672
|
56.47%
|
|
19,281
|
50.83%
|
3.26%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross
profit
|
14,392
|
43.53%
|
|
18,648
|
49.17%
|
29.57%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating
expenses
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amortization
|
3,988
|
|
|
3,762
|
|
|
Interest
& accretion
|
984
|
|
|
1,015
|
|
|
SG&A
|
|
11,994
|
36.28%
|
|
13,757
|
36.27%
|
14.70%
|
Forex
|
|
156
|
|
|
-464
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
opex
|
17,122
|
51.79%
|
|
18,070
|
47.64%
|
5.54%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBT
|
|
-2,730
|
-8.26%
|
|
578
|
1.52%
|
|
Taxes
|
|
0
|
|
|
43
|
|
|
Non-controlling
interest
|
-271
|
|
|
53
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net
income
|
-2,459
|
-7.44%
|
|
482
|
1.27%
|
|
Factors affecting the year over year comparison for the 1st
half of 2006:
- Increased
residential and “other” sales in Canada (see table below)
- Increased
sales of all kinds in the US,
offset by unfavorable foreign currency adjustments.
- Achieving
acceptable operating performance at the Georgia plant after a difficult
2005.
- SG&A
up considerably due to investment in sales efforts targeting the US
residential market (more on this in “growth opportunities” section). CEO
reports that SG&A does not need to increase in the future, adding some
substantial leverage to operating income going forward if there is more
growth.
In the MD&A, the company provides a table to illustrate
the calculation of distributable cash from net income. Here’s a reproduction of
the table:
|
|
Six
months ended
|
|
|
June 30
2005
|
30-Jun-06
|
|
|
|
|
Net
income/loss
|
-2,459
|
482
|
|
|
|
|
Add:
|
|
|
|
Interest
and accretion
|
984
|
1,015
|
Income
taxes
|
0
|
43
|
Inventory
FMV increase
|
964
|
0
|
Deprec
& Amort
|
3,988
|
3,762
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA
|
|
3,477
|
5,302
|
|
|
|
|
Add:
|
|
|
|
Mgmt
bonus
|
488
|
0
|
Non-controlling
interest
|
-271
|
53
|
Unrealized
forex (gains) losses
|
98
|
-852
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted
EBITDA
|
3,792
|
4,503
|
|
|
|
|
Deduct
|
|
|
|
Mgmt
bonus
|
-488
|
0
|
Maintenance
capex
|
-897
|
-433
|
Income
taxes
|
0
|
-43
|
Interest
|
|
-984
|
-821
|
|
|
|
|
Distributable
cash
|
1,423
|
3,206
|
A similar table is provided to reconcile the cash flow
statement to distributable cash, but I won’t reproduce it here to save on
space. See the MD&A for details if you’re interested.
Distributions resumed; current valuation
In August, the company announced that they would be resuming
distributions at the rate of $0.42 per year. With recently commenced payout of
$0.42 per year, the units are yielding 9.3% today, a payout that is well
covered, considering that distributable cash per unit totaled $0.37 in the
first half of the year and $0.94 in the trailing twelve months. As for cash
flows and margins, the following tables should provide some color on the
opportunity in front of Arriscraft:
|
1H2006
|
1H2005
|
TTM
|
2005
|
2004
|
2003
|
2002
|
2001
|
2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sales
|
38
|
33
|
74.8
|
69.8
|
77.3
|
70.5
|
71.6
|
66.9
|
62.7
|
Gross
profit
|
18.6
|
14.4
|
36.5
|
32.3
|
35.6
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA
|
5.3
|
3.5
|
12.2
|
10.4
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted
EBITDA
|
4.5
|
3.8
|
9.5
|
8.8
|
10.9
|
13.6
|
20.2
|
17.1
|
17.4
|
Net
income
|
-2.4
|
0.4
|
-9.9
|
-7.1
|
0.9
|
-0.9
|
7.6
|
8.1
|
8.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Product
volume
|
147
|
137
|
302
|
292
|
301
|
281
|
269
|
266
|
266
|
thousands
of tons per year
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted
EBITDA margin
|
11.84%
|
11.52%
|
12.70%
|
12.61%
|
14.10%
|
19.29%
|
28.21%
|
25.56%
|
27.75%
|
At the annual meeting in May 2006, CEO Boles indicated that
the company foresaw an operational break point at a revenue run rate of $75 -
$80 million per year. According to Boles, “sales above this level will have a
meaningful impact on distributable cash flow.” Based on 2006 YTD results, the
company is already nearing this crucial level of annualized sales, and the
preliminary results are encouraging. Gross and adjusted EBITDA margins are up, though
the margin improvement has been partially masked by the investments in the US residential
sales force. There should be further leverage as these new costs are absorbed
by further sales gains.
It should be noted that the company builds inventory during
the first half of the year, and then experiences their most robust selling
season during the third quarter. This is driven by the need of Canadian
builders to complete and seal the interiors of their construction projects
before the onset of winter. Seasonality has been reduced in recent years as the
company has increased sales in the United States. Raw material costs
are primarily natural gas, electricity, silica sands, and lime. Each item represents
less than 10% of COGS, allowing for some protection if any one were to spike in
price.
Balance Sheet and Capital Structure
As mentioned above, the company has a $16MM subordinated
exchangeable debenture as its main credit facility, of which the entire amount
is outstanding (though it is carried at only $14.3MM on the balance sheet – it
is being accreted upwards to the full value of $16MM over its term). It carries
interest at 4%, though it will reset to prime + 2% in the middle of 2007. Additionally,
there is $5.9 in industrial development revenue bonds associated with the Georgia
facility, which can be treated like a lease. In total, interest expense is
running at $1.6MM per year, giving the company approximately 6 X interest
coverage, using 2005 EBITDA.
The subordinated debenture is convertible, at the option of
the holder at any time, into regular units of the Fund at a price of $9.50 per
unit. Additionally, the units are redeemable by the fund at any time at 101% of
principal value and unpaid interest.
The prior owner of Arriscraft was issued, in conjunction
with the IPO, 948,833 exchangeable LP units. These units are eligible for
distributions, provided that the annual distributions to the common units
exceed $1.20 per year, almost three times the current distributions. They are
convertible on a one for one basis into common units starting in December 2006.
There are 1.62 million subordinated management units that
are convertible into regular units of the Fund in December 2006, if distributions
at that time are in excess of $1.20 per year, which they are not currently.
There a number of other terms, which you can find in the annual report, but the
critical variable is the $1.20 per annum in cash distributions. Until that
target is achieved, the subordination features of the different securities
ensure that virtually all of the cash flow growth will benefit holders of the
common units.
The Growth Opportunity:
When you come to a fork in the road, take it
In the second quarter MD&A, and in the company’s annual
meeting (a recording is available on the company’s web site), Boles spoke about
an upcoming decision: whether to add another production press to the Georgia
facility. They are contemplating this move because of a peculiar breakdown in
the business mix, as illustrated in this table:
Sales
in C$ (millions)
|
1H 2005
|
1H 2006
|
Canada
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential
|
8.3
|
9.4
|
Non-residential
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
Other
|
7.9
|
9.1
|
|
|
|
United States
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential
|
1.6
|
2.4
|
Non-residential
|
11.5
|
14.1
|
Other
|
1.3
|
1.9
|
Non-residential products sales are primarily to the
commercial, office, and landmark (stadiums, courthouses, hedge fund offices)
building sectors. “Other” includes (i) accessories assembled from manufactured
masonry, like windowsills, doorways, quoins, and other products, (ii) brick
manufactured on the company’s stone production presses and (iii) natural
limestone products from one quarry the company operates.
Until the opening of the Georgia
facility, the company had supplied the US
market from its plants in Quebec and Ontario. As these
facilities are located in areas with more commercial than residential
construction, and as the company found itself selling out of its production
capacity most years, they simply did not focus on the US residential market to any large
degree. The opening of the Georgia
plant, in the middle of a high-growth residential market, allowed the company
to target residential sales in the US for the first time, and the new
CEO has built up the sales force expressly to attack this new market. What’s
more, the company is considering adding one or two presses at the Georgia facilities to greatly expand its
presence in the US
residential market. The company will announce their decision sometime in the
next month or so, as they had been waiting to see third quarter business levels
before making their decision.
The company indicates that the PP&E carried on the
balance sheet is fairly indicative of the costs to construct new manufacturing
facility. Note 3 of the 2nd quarter MD&A indicates that the cost
of the company’s buildings and machinery and plant equipment totals $33.2
million. Divide by the six production presses in use today, and we can estimate
that the company would incur costs of $5.5 million to build each new production
press. This estimate is corroborated by the fact that the fourth production
press at the Ontario
plant, completed in 2004, cost $5.2 million. They are contemplating whether to
add zero, one, or two presses in Georgia, according to the recording
of the annual meeting.
If the company were to add two production presses, it would
cost them $11 million. Last year, the company generated $7.37 million in
operating cash flow and spent $1.462 million in capital expenditures, all of
which was classified as maintenance capex. This year, operating cash flow could
be up anywhere from 50% to 100%, and maintenance capex will be lower, thanks to
some of the cost-cutting initiatives put in place by Boles. Less than $2
million will be spent on distributions. Thus, with the free cash flow that will
be generated in 2006 and 2007, the company will have more than enough cash to
self-fund the 33% increase in production capacity represented by two additional
production presses, without putting the distribution at risk. In an optimistic
scenario, they could generate sufficient cash flow for this expansion in a
single year.
The return on capital for an expansion should be excellent.
Once the two new production presses achieve operating performance comparable to
that of the older lines, they should add $25MM in annual revenues ($75MM TTM
revenues, divided by six current production presses, gets you $12.5MM in annual
revenues per press). If the company achieves adjusted EBITDA margins of 13% on
those sales, the $3.25MM of adjusted EBITDA would be a return on capital of 30%
($3.25 divided by $11 of construction costs). If the company achieves its more
normal 20% adjusted EBITDA margins on the new lines, the adjusted EBITDA return
on capital approaches 45%. Of course, adjusted EBITDA may not the best number
to use when calculating return on investment, but whatever earnings figure you
choose to use in your analysis, expansion looks like a very sound use of
capital.
One final note about the US housing market: Janis Joplin
once said that freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose. This
perfectly describes the situation Arriscraft finds itself in with regard to
sales in the US
residential sector. With just $5 million in annualized sales into this market,
they have very little to lose from a sharp downturn in housing. In fact, it
makes wonderful sense for them to be expanding aggressively right now, while
other building materials companies are likely to be suffering. If they make a
“go” decision within the next few months, production in the new Georgia
facilities would commence by the middle of 2008. Given that we are about a year
into the housing bust, even a bad downturn should be over by then. Arriscraft
will be well-positioned as the market bottoms, and by the time their new
facilities are operating at standard efficiencies in 2009, US homebuilders
should be in a strong position to appreciate the company’s high quality, low
cost product.
Conclusion:
Arriscraft presently sports a safe, well-covered 9% yield.
In fact, they are paying out less than the distributable cash generated in
2005, a terrible year. On trailing twelve month distributable cash, the payout
ratio is less than 50%. If they choose to expand, the distribution level is
unlikely to change for some time, but will eventually rise by over 100%,
perhaps even more than 200%. This would be driven by an increase in earnings
and an increase in the payout ratio, up from less than 50% today to closer to
100%. Assuming that the company is priced to yield 500 basis points more than
the US Treasury (which would imply 9.6% today), a $1.00 annual distribution
would lead to a 2009 price target of $10.40. A $1.50 annual distribution would
imply a target price of $15.62. This distribution target ($1.50) is not
outlandish considering the current distributable cash flow run rate, the
potential for margin expansion, and the potential for increased sales from
capacity expansion.
If the company chooses not to expand, they will almost
certainly raise the cash distributions up to close to 100% of distributable
cash flow. Given their history in 2005, they should do this slowly, but even in
this scenario, the distribution should double within two to three years.
With a 9% current cash yield, no matter what choice the
company makes, current investors will be paid handsomely to wait for either
scenario to play out.
Catalysts:
- Continued
sales and profit growth in 2006 and 2007.
- Announcement
of expansion plans, or plans to forego expansion and dramatically raise
cash distributions.
- Whether
the company chooses expansion or not, the payout ratio of distributable
cash will increase over time.
- Increased
investor confidence with each month’s cash distribution.