Anworth common shares were written up by john771 in August and have rallied from around $4 to over $8. At the time, Anworth's business consisted of two parts:
1. A mortgage REIT with 98% Agency securities and 2% AAA MBS.
2. A subsidiary called Belvedere Trust which invested in mainly A and BBB MBS.
The key issue was how Anworth would do during the credit crisis when mortgage companies were losing access to repo lines. John771 predicted at the time that Belvedere might lose its ability to repo MBS (even though credit quality was good). But he predicted that Anworth's parent would be okay because it mainly held Agency securities, which were very unlikely to lose their ability to be repoed. The writeup correctly pointed out that there was plenty of upside even if Belvedere was completely written off. This is exactly what happened. As a result of the credit crisis, Belvedere was unable to repo its MBS. But, Anworth's parent was able to continue to repo Agency securities. Belvedere has been largely written off at this point.
As of the end of Q3, Anworth had a mortgage portfolio of $4.1 billion (99% Agency), funded by repo lines of $3.7 billion. Common equity was about $340 million. Since the end of the quarter, Anworth has added $66 million of additional equity through an offering of common stock. This equity will be used to buy Agency MBS.
The preferred B shares are senior to common stock. They yield 7.6%. Over time, it is likely that they will rally back to near par value of $25. This process has already started. The market has begun to realize the safety of the preferred shares which have rallied by 20% in the last month. As this continues, investors should realize a 20%+ gain as the preferred appreciate to around $25. In the mean time, you can collect the healthy dividend yield. The preferred B shares are completely safe, unless you believe that people will stop repoing Freddie and Fannie securities (a very slim possibility).
Are you sure you want to close this position Anworth Preferred B Shares?
By closing position, I’m notifying VIC Members that at today’s market price, I no longer am recommending this position.
Flag Anworth Preferred B Shares for Removal
Are you sure you want to Flag this idea Anworth Preferred B Shares for removal?
Flagging an idea indicates that the idea does not meet the standards of the club and you believe it should be removed from the site. Once a threshold has been reached the idea will be removed.
You Cannot Submit Message ... Yet
You currently do not have message posting privilages, there are
1 way you can get the privilage.
You can apply for full membership by submitting an investment idea of your own. Or if you are in reactivation status, you need to reactivate your full membership.