ASML has an ADR in the US but for the following I will refer to the primary Dutch listing – ASML NA (on Bloomberg). (The 17.45 price quoted in the data above is for the ADR).

 

However I believe that because of all the above reasons analysts and investors have been reluctant to aggressively short it this cycle. Indeed one might argue that the market is really looking through any downturn and valuing ASML on the basis of a recovery valuation. I feel that there is a significant short opportunity offering 20% or more return.

 

I have been negative ASML all year and been predicting negative eps for ASML for 2009. Until recently the consensus eps has been 55 – 90 Euro cents. However, whilst I have been waiting for holidays to get around to writing up my thesis ASML warned on the 19^th Dec and the consensus eps fell to 5 eurocents (source bloomberg). Interestingly the share price has not really reacted and I think partially that is due to a lot of European investors having taken off much of this week.

 

I believe that actually the company could suffer 3 -4 quarters of loss making or, at best, break even earnings and as a consequence consensus is still too high. Furthermore I believe that the hypothesis of a rapid recovery afterwards is incorrect.

 

As a consequence I believe that ASML will fall from its current share price of Euro12.42 to at least Euro 10 and possibly go into single digits over the course of 2009 thus offering a return to shorts of 20% or more. My analysis is below.

 

 

 

In order not to lose members of VIC in technology babble I am going to simplify ASML's business. In essence it makes big processing units that exposure semiconductor wafers to light and so allow the etching of very small structures on chips. At the 'leading edge' ASML has a 70% plus market share – its two main rivals are Nikon and Canon.

 

ASML customers buy ASML equipment for two reasons – 'technology' buys for leading edge developments (including R&D) and capacity expansion (ie for volume production).

 

A lot of analysts undertake a lot of work on the competitive environment but I think that in the current macro environment that is missing the point. There is a lot of focus by analysts on whether ASML will win Elpida or how many EUV units it will sell – I think that this is missing the point – what matters is the core market.

 

The big picture is that roughly one third of semiconductors are used for telecommunications (mainly mobile phones) and consumer electronics; a third for computers (ie PCs etc) and the rest for industrials and automotives etc.

The key issue for me is that a significant percentage (rule of thumb is two thirds) of the end demand is replacement demand – ie people replacing their mobile phone, PC or car. I believe that mobile phone sales globally will fall at least 10% in 2009 and PC unit sales will fall at least as much. On this I am at a variation with many analysts who assume that PCs will fall less than mobile phones (indeed there are some analysts who believe unit sales will still be up in 2009). I disagree because on average phones are cheaper than PCs and secondly corporates in particular are likely to slow down replacement of PCs in a recession. Both segments however are also extraordinarily sensitive to replacement cycles – eg a 6 month lengthening of mobile phone replacement cycle in Western Europe alone could have a 5-8% impact on unit sales in 2009 (dependent on which bank's model you use). It is fairly easily to actually get to units being down 15% or more in 2009 for both phones and PCs.

 

Note that earlier this year analysts and companies were expecting 10% growth in PC and handset units in 2009 - the delta means that in some cases (not all) manufacturers have overbuilt as a result.

 

I probably do not even need to discuss the fall in units for automotives and consumer electronics into 2009.

 

The second key point for me is that for PCs in particular the average selling price in 2009 is likely to be impacted by the shift to netbooks which are ultra lightweight laptops at significantly lower price points than traditional PCs. The consequence of this is that the semiconductor cost of goods in PCs is likely to fall in 2009.

 

The third issue is that a significant part of ASML's sales and backlog (on occasions over 50%) is due to memory makers (ie DRAM and NAND). The end market for memory makers is PCs and also other consumer electronic devices (eg digital cameras, phones etc). Virtually every major memory maker is loss making – and prospects for next year look poor. A number are raising capital eg Qimonda recently. I believe that the memory makers are slowing down ordering of new equipment and indeed are finding that sources of finance are drying up. For instance in conversations with ASML it has become clear over the course of this year that a number of leasing companies that had entered the semiconductor leasing market have withdrawn after concluding that second hand equipment price visibility is non-existent and balance sheets and cashflows of semiconductor companies are weak.

 

(As an aside one should note that DRAM bit count per PC has traditionally grown each year however for Windows based PCs there is no real benefit going beyond 3GB (the current average is around 2GB) until we move to 64 bit computing – which is really unlikely to hit the mainstream until 2010; in the Apple world 'Snow Leopard' might lead the way in 2009).

 

Fourthly the semiconductor industry has been moving from being vertically integrated to a horizontally based industry with design and manufacturing being separated. Manufacturing is being focussed more and more in foundries of which the biggest, by far is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). It is clear talking to TSMC that the company is not expecting a rapid recovery in 2009; indeed some analysts covering the company are now suggesting utilisation at TSMC could fall as low as 41% in Q1 2009. This is important as TSMC is considered the bellwether of the foundry industry – for reference at peak utilisation TSMC has hit over 100% utilisation. It is clear that except for specific technology buys TSMC will not be making major purchase decisions, certainly not for capacity, for a number of quarters. TSMC is in a better condition than many foundries and the remaining vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturers. The key point is that it is going to be a long time before capacity buyers return to the market. Discussions with various semiconductor companies it appears that semiconductor equipment capex next year could be down 30% on 2008 – I do not believe analysts have modelled this properly. Within this ASML's segment (lithography) may be relatively protected but I believe analysts are still too bullish.

 

Fifthly despite protestations to the contrary there appears to be significant amounts of inventory of all kinds throughout the electronics chain. It is very hard to get a finger on this but I think the easiest way to assess this is actually to go to a local supermarket or electronics retailer and look at the price reductions – as a rule of thumb electronics fall 17%-19% per year in price – beyond that usually indicates surplus inventory.

 

Sixth analysts are modelling the present semiconductor downturn on the 2001 downturn. At that time there was a relative quick recovery and ASML was gaining significant amounts of market share with a new product range. In the current downturn ASML is now the dominant player and I believe that it is going to take significantly longer for an economic recovery to lead to increased semiconductor foundry utilisation.

 

My conclusion putting all the above together is that I expect a recovery in volume (ie capacity) sales by ASML to take until 2010 at the earliest (I think 2011 may be more realistic). In 2009 revenues could be 15-20% down or more; 2010 may a low single digit growth year. I have discussed this scenario with management and they agree it is a possible scenario. In the best case in this scenario the management suggests at least 3 quarters of breakeven. Worst case will be significant losses and restructuring. At my last meeting in November management talked about reassessing the situation in Q1. However since then they have warned on 19^th December 2008.

 

Based on the press release and my conversations with management I feel that the situation is even worse than I anticipated. The consequence is that I believe we could be looking at negative 40 eurocents or so in 2009. I also believe that a restructuring and losses will lead to an impact on the cash pile the company has. I also believe that many sector analysts did brief summaries following the warning but will not fully adjust their models until January.

 

For 2010 the outcome really depends on if there is a recovery in the economy but it is hard to imagine ASML achieving more than 20-40 eurocents of earnings in a best case; and actually near zero is quite possible. Thus investors trying to look through the trough to recovery earnings are likely to be disappointed.

 

I have in the past tried to model number of units for ASML by product line but actually I have found it much better to be 'roughly right rather than precisely wrong' by looking at the customers, what they are saying for capex and also what their end customers are saying in turn.

 

I believe that realisation of these issues will come in Q1 as the company does its results roadshow with its Q4 and 2008 full year results (15 Jan 2009). At that time I think analysts will have to push back a recovery into 2010 at the best and possibly into 2011. This will lead to a reassessment of the valuation and drive the stock price to below Euro 10.

 

The risks for a short position in ASML are acquisition risk – it is clear that a number of potential buyers exist – including Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) and Tokyo Electron.