APPLE INC AAPL
S
January 23, 2017 - 8:08pm EST by
member
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
| Price: | 120.00 | EPS | 7.50 | 6 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 5,300 | P/E | 16 | 20 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 630,000 | P/FCF | 13 | 12 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -140,000 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 490,000 | TEV/EBIT | 14 | 17 | |||
| Borrow Cost: | Available 0-15% cost | ||||||
Description
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| 55 | |
Curious to get board's thoughts on all these sales forecast cuts by Apple suppliers (Cirrus just cut today) on what is most likely weak XR sales. Appears that Apple has started to aggresively have promotions... login to read the rest | |
| 54 | |
Also I realize it's premature to have conversation about a potential phone we know almost nothing about. I simply thought it was worthwhile to throw out there and at least put it on the radar. | |
| 53 | |
Appreciate the thoughtful replies everyone, they are excellent rebuttals to my comment. I'm not rushing to short AAPL here - my objective was to raise this as a potential headwind for the company down the... login to read the rest | |
| 52 | |
agree with most all of mfritz and condor's comments. foldable is just another high end novelty that may affect a tiny segment of the market but is unlikely to change the underlying trends (market saturation;... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
The foldable phone will essentially be a foldable version of an iPad Mini. From what I can tell, iPad Minis aren't selling that well. They're excellent for media consumption but harder to type on, and... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
My answer is no, because so much is unknown at this point. But I think it is a precursor to marking the top.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/11/12/samsung-foldable-phone-price-release-date/
Consumer electronics has a storied history of working in cycles where innovation occurs... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
every hardware company and contract manufacturer is building inventory because of the component issues. i think with aapl, you have to also look at channel inventory, which came down last q to the low end | |
| 47 | |
its the biggest mutual fund underweight by a wide margin. q was fine and ASP's (one of the keys to the bear case) was better than expected. as you point out expected return is ok... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Agree with Condor. At the current price you're getting a 6% levered FCF yield with FCF likely to grow in the 4-6% range for the next several years, resulting in a 10-12% annual return. Not | |
| 42 | |
Not sure why they'd pre-buy memory when they said they thought both DRAM and NAND were peaking on the call. Seems counter intuitive to buy a whole bunch of something when you think the price... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
So Apple's inventory grew 150% YoY on 3% unit volume in iPhone. Inventory was up 77% sequentially going in to a quarter that iPhone units are typically down 20% sequentially. Apple claimed a pre-buy on "components"... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
I don’t know if this is the time to sell, but just some thoughts as an Apple user and observer of technology.
The momentum from the iPhone is starting to wane. Pretty much every adult alive... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Is now the time to sell?
Any thoughts on AAPL now that the iphone 8 / X "supercycle" is peaking? Clearly demand for the X is muted and fewer than expected people want to pay $1k+... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
I guess I disagree with your characterization of the market. I don't think Netflix is spending more because competitors are spending more. I think they are spending more because it is a good investment. The... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
I appreciate your response. But I would put this more simply; Apple has the resources and scale to make Netflix a global content creation and distribution monopoly for a long time. nothing about it would... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
sorry for the slow response. point taken re your view of the US market; i disagree fundamentally (i dont think more screens = more subscribers, necessarily, and I would be unwilling to underwrite more than... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
1) why do you think the market is saturated in U.S/developed. 5G + more screens + cheaper connectivity + more connectivity +more content + better----should keep the streaming market growing for some time. Netflix has 100mm subs today.... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
you lost me at 'netflix's operating margins at scale will be greater than 40%'...NFLX already has saturated North America and is well on the way to doing so in most of the developed world, if... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
they don't have to do anything. But I think it could be great for both.
Netflix is a software company. It is consumer entertainment software. There are about 1700 employees on the tech side of the business, including data scientists and engineers. If it is easy... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
Great points. I feel like there is a possibility that Eddy Cue is the wrench in this happening. As Ahab931 noted, Reed Hastings is not going to report to Eddy Cue. And Eddy Cue has... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Agree 100%. I read that editorial this morning and thought "how much more cover does this management team need to go forward w a NFLX acquisition?" But maybe it struck a nerve highlighting AAPL's lack of... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-time-for-apple-to-go-hollywood-1497998797
This is pretty good. Its not clear how making a few shows will make a difference for a Company Apple's size. Its not really clear how spending $2B, which would be a big ramp, will make a difference. Netflix is spending $7B. Amazon... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
Thank you. I heard Eddy Cue at the re/code conference suggest that Apple's goal in television is to move culture. I find that to be a bit self-indulgent. I think the goal should be to... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
No suprise to anyone on the board, but I think it makes much more sense for Apple to buy Netflix than Disney:
1) Disney's films are tied up in pay-1 deals around the world, often for... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
"more like Frito-Lay than Hermes" ...in good fun, WinBrun
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| 16 | |
Do you think that is fair? Seems like the phone is more like a consumer staple with pricing power. More like Frito-Lay than Hermes. Luxury goods companies rarely address such a large market. The app | |
| 13 | |
At the risk of getting my head bitten off, as I know this stock has stoked angry passions in the past, I wondered if anybody was interested in getting the discussion going again? Two weeks... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Based on Kantar stats recently it seems AAPL is losing ground in China and gaining ground in the US in terms of market share. Europe seems to be mostly positive except for Germany. All in... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
You are arguing for a self disruption (not M&A, ie inorganic), which is the downside scenario I present. In this scenario, Apple creates 5 Netflixes from scratch and is rewarded by the market with a... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
Hopefully it provided a useful, variant view on a name with 37 sellside buy ratings.
Overall installed base continues to increase but at a declining rate, while Android installed base is increasing at an accelerated rate... login to read the rest | |