Hi althea,
Curious if you have any updated thoughts on WNC. With backlog up to $1.3bn and decent GPM expansion, do you still think we are nearing a cyclical downturn? Also, do you have any updated
Thanks for the question. We have a couple thoughts.
The street was mismodeling revenue (-52% YoY) in our view. Sales came in basically in-line with our estimate, which was based on (1) ACT industry shipments (-46%... login to read the rest
Chalkbaggery – Thanks for the question. Happy to provide an update.
We believe the short is as, if not more attractive, as ever. Before getting into the specifics of the recent data, we think that it... login to read the rest
Re: Feb. Orders Fall Plummet (pre-COVID-19 impact), WNC Pulls Guidance, Financial Distress Seems Lik
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Hi Althea, wondering how recent order data is trending? Also, are used valued still going down/staying depressed?Surprising this stock is back to early-March levels. A bunch of industrials-related stocks are having a fun time ignoring economic reality
Feb. net trailer orders declined -45% YoY / -15% MoM to 12.7k, which was the worst Feb. net order figure since 2009 (5.4k) and worse than 2010 (14.3k). We expect that orders are about to... login to read the rest
Orders Fall, Used Volumes Spike, New Competitive Capacity. Financial Leverage Coming into Focus?
January net trailer orders declined -42% YoY / -15% MoM to <15k (source: ACT) against easy comps. We were expecting flat MoM orders.
Net orders over the last 9, 6, & 3 months have trended in-line... login to read the rest
Though there are some puts and takes, we believe the result was worse than we were expecting and, importantly, that management has set itself up for major future disappointments. Their back-loaded annual guidance looks completely... login to read the rest
Thanks for the question nathanj.
We continue to believe that the current stock price (~$12) does not reflect the decline in sales / profits. MTOR only reduced the midpoint of its sales and EBITDA estimates by... login to read the rest
MTOR Slashes Trailer Guidance:
We believe that Meritor’s (ticker: MTOR) fiscal year 2020 (FYE: 9/30/20) guidance reduction today is a clear warning sign for WNC, as MTOR is a major supplier of trailer axles, parts, and... login to read the rest
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