AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC
November 13, 2019 - 11:50pm EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 8.80 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 142 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 1,256 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 4,731 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 5,987 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
- AMC AMC S 08/07/2021
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC S 05/29/2021
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS (1ST LIEN BONDS) AMC 11/13/2020
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC S 11/19/2018
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC 02/13/2018
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC 06/02/2017
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS AMC June $1 puts 02/24/2023
- AMC ENTERTAINMENT AMC US 06/09/2017
- BETA
- Cineworld CINE LN S 05/12/2019
- NATIONAL CINEMEDIA INC NCMI S 02/13/2017
- AMC NETWORKS INC AMCX 01/04/2012
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| 79 | |
I don't think I had a thesis that move theaters are going away.if you read my posts, I thought the windows would compress--that has not been right.
Disney and WB definitely redoubling on theatrical (for different... login to read the rest | |
| 78 | |
I think it's safe to say movie theaters are here to stay? COVID was an event that would have made your thesis happen if it was ever going to happen, no? All that said, movie... login to read the rest | |
| 77 | |
1-$30 for one of Disney's major tentpoles in-home on demand could be a great value for a family of four (or more) compared to 4 movie tickets + food, which could easily be $60+. If... login to read the rest | |
| 76 | |
I fail to see how you connect a $30 PVOD price point during Covid while theaters are completely closed with day and date for free on Disney+ but ok.
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| 75 | |
this is a move. time will tell if this model holds--but I predict this movie does $100M+ on opening weekend, even at the price point, and drives Disney+ viewing and sign-ups. | |
| 74 | |
majic06-Respect your views. But as a Disney shareholder, I would like to see Disney be one of the next companies to reach a $1T market capitalization. It has a path to get there. But it... login to read the rest | |
| 73 | |
I can't imagine why AMC would accept a deal as bad as this sounds given 1) Universial's release slate, 2) the fact that AMC banned Universal and not the other way around, and 3) the fact... login to read the rest | |
| 72 | |
1-certainly contributed to it. But it was also heavily marketed and good for families. I don't think we know how PVOD will work if the studios really get behind a film that offers good value... login to read the rest | |
| 71 | |
Trolls was a moderate PVOD hit because it wasn't released in theaters and literally everyone was STUCK AT HOME. It is not at all a test of how PVOD would work in a normal world.
The day... login to read the rest | |
| 70 | |
1-Disney would generate a lot more viewing in aggregate of any big tentpole if it had a totally ubiquitous release strategy. A lot of people don't go to theaters/don't live near theaters. Internationally, this impact... login to read the rest | |
| 69 | |
" If Disney makes Frozen 3 available on Disney+ at the same time it is in the theater, it will drive huge viewing on both. "
I lol'd. I do love your passion though WinBrun. But this is... login to read the rest | |
| 68 | |
sorry--yes--this does probably move way closer to demise of the theatrical window. My last post was whether that is bad for theaters. I am not convinced that it is. But the window is going away. | |
| 66 | |
I don't think so. May be good for the theaters actually. The big event movies with great effects benefit from the crowd and the big screen. A shortened window should not take away from the... login to read the rest | |
| 64 | |
https://deadline.com/2020/07/universal-amc-theatres-theatrical-window-crush-pvod-agreement-1202997573/
seems like win-win.
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| 61 | |
IB borrow on AMC (I am not short but tried this morning to no avail) has been 60% for a month and 100% the last 5 days. If you are long AMC you should take... login to read the rest | |
| 60 | |
Covid is so contagious that it seems to be either everywhere or nowhere. Either we lock down sufficiently to starve the virus of people to infect--in which case, it dies off--or we don't. In which... login to read the rest | |
| 59 | |
Just one follow-up---the issues in my last post are going to be broader than just movie-going. I own Disney--it is fair to ask some of the exact same questions about how Disney may need to... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
thank you for the summary--I have a question on your second point (i.e. As to the risk here, it’s worth breaking out into its individual components. First and foremost, there’s the Covid-19/bankruptcy risk. The longer... login to read the rest | |
| 56 | |
A question I've been wondering: if this goes on long enough, when does supply of movies become an issue?
Obviously you need theaters open and people comfortable enough going to them. Let's assume that happens by... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
majic and Ray are right. this business was at death's door before Covid, irresponsibly levered, and was likely in need of a debt restructuring in 2021 if the box office underperformed.
BUT - even if we... login to read the rest | |
| 52 | |
I'm perplexed how bulls are pretending AMC was in good shape before Covid hit. The stock was sub $10 for a reason. I don't need to rehash it. | |
| 50 | |
i did adjust fair value down by my estimate of the cash burn / increased debt, which may have been too optimistic but not in a game changing way.
i don't think this makes the A-list... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
Well, in this case
1) the farm is burning huge, huge quantities of moeny while waiting to start back up. that's permenant money that will never come back
2) the farm had a really interestign strategic asset... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
i think our difference of opinion here, is about whether or not a transitory event (COVID-19), warrants a permanent adjustment to valuation. if this was a farm, and comparable farms traded over many years for... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
I've thought the market has underestimated AMC for years.... but this note is a work of complete fantasy. Pulling down their fair value by $5/share due to Corona? That's ~$500m of value; that's roughly how much... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
sent this to clients on Monday. the attempt at covenant relief and debt raise announced after the close today align more with my view that chp. 11 not inevitable:
April 13, 2020 ... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Agreed Majic, would have been interesting to see how this would have played out without the sky falling on top of them. Despite having capitulated a while back, I still believed the movie business would... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
Adam Aron could not be more bullish. Remember, he bought stock with his own monies.
In all seriousness, it would have been interesting to see how this stock played out in a non Corona world. ... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
WSJ out with the preliminary obituary. https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-entertainment-lenders-hire-lawyers-for-restructuring-talks-11585770293
With AMC burning something like $80M/month even with employees furloughed and costs slashed they will bump into their covenant on their term loan this year. if you are management why wouldnt... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Mimval -- as pretty large holders of AMC, I am curious if you have discussed with management what measures, if any, they have taken to attempt to mitigate the defacto shutdown of theaters -- i... login to read the rest | |