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90
member
12/21/17 2:16PM
Long AMC
89
Allow me to take the other side. I think the setup here is fantastic. I believe lots of people are selling for tax losses (virtually everyone well underwater especially the secondary buyers earlier this year... login to read the rest
Many of my views around the industry have not changed, but mgmt has undermined aspects of the original thesis to an extent that I no longer want to be involved.
Reason?
EDIT: Besides management's inept execution? Do you have a new view on exhibitors? RGC takeout price implies a much higher price for AMC, adjusting for Europe assets.
It's all just a ponzi scheme. You don't need AMC to do that; it will happen anyway as HMNY burns through all it's cash by buying movie tickets. Winners will be AMC shareholders and HMNY
AMC should buy MoviePasses in bulk. Not the company... just buy all the MoviePasses available at Costco for $89...effectively a direct transfer of $$$ from HMNY investors to AMC investors. What a deal. The
Re: Re: La times article is carbon copy of issues on this chat
79
Funny thing is I won't go to movies with a low RT score. But I might also go to one with a high score. I think the thing is many/most movies suck so RT is
Re: Re: La times article is carbon copy of issues on this chat
79
Q1 was a record, Q4 will be a record, but because the summer sucked movie theaters are dunzo.
In other news, AMC is now hard to borrow w/ tough locate and fees @10%.
I think NCMI is extremely compelling here and trying to figure out where I could be wrong.
What do you think this biz would look like @ $350M annual revenues? Would margins still be >45%?
At... login to read the rest
Why does anyone go to the movies now? Why not just wait 9 months and see it for free on premium cable. Or better yet, wait a few years and see it for free on... login to read the rest
I agree 100%. Here is a thought: exhibitors should AGREE to it. Embrace it. And let the consumer decide. I am certain the impact would be marginal, if any, and investors could finally move on... login to read the rest
1) $30, $50. Nobody is paying that absent an extremely small minority. It's not about just saving a few $ vs. going to the movies if you would even save money. This has been debated... login to read the rest
1-The difference between $30 and $50 could matter. If it costs less than going to a movie at $30--and you pay once and a family of five can watch--that might be attractive. Particularly if you... login to read the rest
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-18/hollywood-apple-are-said-to-mull-rental-plan-defying-theaters
Some thoughts.
1) VIC is full of 1%ers who aren't representative of the general population. Even given that, how many of you would spend $30-$50 to rent a movie at home? I'm guessing virtually... login to read the rest
1-You have a rosy view of studio/theater economics that I don't share. Theatrical distribution on the studio side is a hit-driven, capital intensive, low-margin business. Your aggregate box office numbers tell you nothing about margin... login to read the rest
It is amazing how a general narrative can color people's analysis and thinking. Every wise guy is long FANG and short anti-FANG (retail, old media, etc). Meanwhile the movie business is one of the last... login to read the rest
I am just in awe. This is actually great news -- a deep pocketed startup willing to burn money will be subsidizing price sensitive movie goers and theaters get full price!
Funny - I never thought I would use the term "fake news" before, but I have never seen anything like this. AMC down with a Bloomberg headline about AMC slashing its movie pass pricing having... login to read the rest
I will reiterate what I said---the industry is completely dependent on one supplier for the high-quality product that drives audience-Disney. That is a relatively new dynamic-and it is not a healthy one.
i think the thread is relying too much on anecdotes from a narrow demographic.
the movies are extremely expensive relative to the alternative, but it's not just that. July retail sales just ripped. forget Dick's and... login to read the rest
1-If the moviegoing experience is as special as you suggest--then Disney should definitely go day and date because it will not cannibalize any of their business--it will grow it. Consumers who agree with you about... login to read the rest
I think the question misses the mark a bit. It not about the cheapest way to consume Disney products...its about getting out. On a rainy sat i would take the kids to the movie theater... login to read the rest
The chinese angle was weird - it really has nothing to do with AMC - which as you point out has several actual reasons to be concerned. BTW, if one were to fear some sort... login to read the rest
Disney is on record to being the only studio with no interest in PVOD so I have no idea why they would then launch a sub service offering their moves day 1 in home.
That being... login to read the rest
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