March 19, 2015 - 3:29pm EST by
2015 2016
Price: 58.29 EPS 1.70 2.18
Shares Out. (in M): 82 P/E 34 27
Market Cap (in $M): 4,779 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): 603 EBIT 178 238
TEV (in $M): 4,177 TEV/EBIT 23 18
Borrow Cost: General Collateral

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  • Orthodontics
  • Medical Devices
  • Patents
  • Product concentration
  • Deteriorating Fundamentals
  • Competitive Threats
  • Insider selling
  • horrible mistake




I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.


Near Term:

·         Align fails to meet its 15-25% long-term revenue growth target in 2015 and beyond

·         Align does not show margin improvement as 2015 progresses causing earnings estimates to decline materially

·         ClearCorrect continues to take market share


Medium to Long-term

·         Patents are rolling off and Danaher and others enter the market in 2017 and beyond



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