Post 9/11 saw a multi year decline in commercial air traffic. I would be surprised if we are not looking at a similar situation (or worse) over the next several years. Would this not represent a material
gotcha, thanks HoneyBadger. I see what you are saying with the higher ROICs, lower debt, etc. I guess it is more of a servicey-type business and hence deserving of the higher multiple. i will do
Honeybadger - how much of the earnings of the business come from aircraft leasing? If it is substantial (it sounds like it is), then why would cargo aircraft leasing trade at 3x book value vs... login to read the rest
A) pilots b) feedstock agreements c)conversion ... also the dhl agreement comes up for renewal next year. Amzn could buy it and not renew with dhl and bingo, more planes!
One more minor item: amzn likes to grow and even if your assemsnt was right (which i disagree with), amzn would most likely still place another order with atsg as they roll this out as... login to read the rest
We believe they have 10 years left on the 200s.. 15-20 years left on everything else. That’s a long time. Adjusting for true maintenance capex and plane replenishment it’s atill a 10% fcf yield. Do... login to read the rest
Do you know the average age of the 767's leased to Amazon? Presumably these are +20 year-old planes? I'm making that assumption based on CargoJet's disclosures. ATSG seems to go out of their way to... login to read the rest
So wsj reporting amzn wants to grow to compete with ups/fdx... to me it would be very difficult to source the planes and get the pilots and certify the pilots... why not just buy or... login to read the rest
So I'm showing very minor cash generation in 2014 and 2015 ($0.25-$0.40/shr), free cash negative 2011-13, effectively free cash neutral 2009-2010, $0.80/shr FCF positive in 2009, and highly cash negative (>$1.00/shr) in 2008.
HoneyBadger,
Thanks for the idea. You characterize the company as "cash generative". However, I just quickly pulled financials and it looks like over both the trailing 5-yr and 10-yr periods, the company in aggregate has spent... login to read the rest
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