AIR CANADA AC.CN
September 04, 2018 - 12:44pm EST by
member
| 2018 | 2019 | ||||||
| Price: | 26.50 | EPS | 2.55 | 3.59 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 272 | P/E | 10.37 | 7.4 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 7,200 | P/FCF | 10x | 5x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 2,300 | EBIT | 1 | 2 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 10 | TEV/EBIT | 8.3x | 6.2x | |||
- None found
- BETA
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| 34 | |
I'm bag holding here and obviously the massive underperformance to the market is no surprise. The underperformance versus airline peers doesn't make much sense from a textbook perspective but I think is a function of a Long AC... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
I'm hearing that certain airlines are considering of grounding a large portion of their fleet during parts of the summer if the spread accelerates in N.America and Europe. | |
| 31 | |
I agree with xds that this is likely the main driver of the underperformance. Fortunately, China is only ~6% of capacity and mix negative so it's a lower percentage of profits.
What's interesting is that on the... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
They are on the higher end of the curve as far as pacific flights as % of rev at 14%, so will take bigger near term hit if those routes are further curtailed, but they... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Really nothing has materially changed from the Q1-19 / Q2-19 update below.
AC continues to manage the MAX headwind beyond expectations. In Q3-19, AC posted +9% YoY EBITDA growth versus expectations of +5%. More importantly, RASM continues to... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
afgtt, many thanks for this and also the comprehensive updated posted previously, much appreciated. | |
| 23 | |
Neutral quarter. Thought process surrounding valuation unchanged from my previous post.
Strong reported Q2-19 but management guided the street to expect growth to slow in Q3-19. Management called for 5% Q3-19 YoY EBITDA growth. Management still... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
I'll help keep this thread active since we are involved in the name (see our recent write up on SZ from April 2019 - full analysis / detailed model there). Hats off to hamilton and quads for flagging... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
bump :) | |
| 20 | |
nycharg - happy you liked the idea. As for current thoughts, this remains one of the best risk/rewards I've seen in my career -- frankly, I think its just getting started and still see multi-bagger... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
How do you think about Canadian/US recession case for the core airline business? Load factors are at ATHs. Business class volumes and pricing are strong. Both would be hit in either recession scenarios. Even the... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
I don’t. As referenced in the write-up the industry structure in Canada is far superior to that in the US due to the duoply as well as the lack of incursion by ULCCs. The dynamic... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Thanks, that's helpful. One other question, do you worry at all about discounters/ULCC scaling? Seems like there are a few fledgling efforts right now, that haven't had much impact yet, but plausibly could change the... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
One way that I like to think about this is as a complete commodity business with two players -- Air Canada and WestJet. Historically, Air Canada was the high cost player and WestJet was the... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Canadian oil sector seems to be a not so slow motion train wreck right now - can Canada avoid recession if pricing doesn't improve (oil 10% of GDP, pricing has collapsed and have to think... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
As we hypothesized, Air Canada is getting paid ~$3 per share in CAD to take the loyalty program, which will likely be generating $500mm+ of FCF to AC when all is said and done. Furthermore,... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
canada has two calculations for pensions. solvency and going concern valuation. solvency is defined as what the pension plan would be worth today if it were unwind. | |
| 11 | |
can you help me understand the difference between the $2.5B solvency surplus you referenced and the $1.07B net benefit obligation on p.105 of the annual report? Thanks. | |
| 10 | |
It's an estimate given to me by consultants based on their assumptions re: profitability of the card portfolios to the respective banks (as a sanity check, TD's '15 guide re: 15 cent uplift to earnings... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
How did you get TD paying 3x as much? I see that Aeroplan has about 50% more gross billings from TD than CIBC. | |
| 8 | |
I wouldn’t get too carried away re: oil prices and their impact on this investment. The industry is a duopoly and thus, they have pricing power (i.e., the ability to pass on higher oil prices... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
How do you get to $2.5B pension surplus?
Please see page 47 (Pension funding obligations) as well as page 104 (Note 8. Pension and Other Benefit Liabilities) of the AC Annual Report:
“As at January... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
Thank you Hamilton 1757. Super thorough and helpful responses. Very interesting. | |
| 4 | |
Peers are ~6.5x EV/EBITDAR -- a 2-turn rerating is worth $22 per share (or 83% of the market cap) without even counting the accretion from Aeroplan. Yes, I’m using sell-side numbers and capitalizing rent, but... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Thank you for interesting idea. A few questions
How do you get to $2.5B pension surplus?
Do you have a sense of maintenance capex? It looks like the business has been cumulative FCF negative for most time... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
Hamilton1757 - really interesting and thank you. Quick questions.
1. How does your 4.5x EV/EBITDAR compare to comps and are you capitalizing rent at 8x or something else? Are you including tax assets, pension surplus, etc?
2.... login to read the rest | |
| 1 | |
Apologize. Market cap, debt, etc. are all obviously in billions, as opposed to millions. | |