AIMIA INC AIM.
April 02, 2019 - 9:03am EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 3.99 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 152 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 456 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 456 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| 70 | |
byronval - The minimum buyout price is US$400mm + pro rata cash. So if PLM paid dividend then yes would reduce pro rata cash but AIM would still get US$400mm.
roojoo - I doubt Apollo just... login to read the rest | |
| 67 | |
This is a big step. AeroMexico should be able to exit BK w/a stronger balance sheet and support from its largest shareholder w/$400b+ AUM (Apollo). I can't imagine Apollo just wants to own an airline, | |
| 66 | |
I view this as a huge positive and 1st step towards Aero exiting BK (assuming requisite approvals received). Post-Aero's BK, I'd expect PLM to quickly execute a dividend recap equating to ~$2/sh to AIM and... login to read the rest | |
| 64 | |
Aeromexico Press Release=is "analyzing different alternatives to successfully achieve.. an orderly restructuring of financial commitments, without affecting or disrupting operations.". Jizz, the recent AeroMexico PLM loan is secured by their stake in PLM but still,... login to read the rest | |
| 63 | |
all fair points and you guys are right. i jumped the gun a bit on my criticism - it was very much backward-looking and rooted in past disappointments with this company, not relative to the... login to read the rest | |
| 62 | |
i'd also add that referencing the midteens EBITDA multiple and Virgin Australia is apples/oranges b/c of the points liability. 7.5x might be low vs. 10x, but given the talk of pursuing a leveraged recap, essentially... login to read the rest | |
| 61 | |
puppyeh - You have to be the only investor that believes the new Board's actions are a net negative to shareholders. You are arguing that ~$5.90 per share for PLM as a FLOOR value is a bad... login to read the rest | |
| 60 | |
just listening to teh call and need to review the transcript, but it sounds like PLM still has $170M in cash on the balance sheet, and the loan to Aeromexico is secured by Aeromexico's stake... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
thanks for the pushback. I think you missed the main point i was making - PLM is kicking in all its excess cash to take EXTRA exposure to Aeromexico, for no upside. If Aeromexico filed... login to read the rest | |
| 57 | |
I would argue that this has a different risk reward profile than other travel related plays that can 3x in a normalized environment as there is 85% of the market cap in gross cash as well... login to read the rest | |
| 56 | |
Can someone please take off the rose-colored glasses here? How is this just not another massive misstep? They took a cash rich, debt-free loyalty program (PLM) which, theoretically, had significant negotiating leverage over Aeromexico given... login to read the rest | |
| 55 | |
They dumped the toxic money-losing debris. You're buying cash and PLM. I have no idea how to value the asset mgmt company today but it's a small piece of the value and probably won't detract.... login to read the rest | |
| 54 | |
i mean, at the end of the day there are still some unknowns here with Aeromexico so i don't want to call this a homerun.... but this is kind of homerun, no? | |
| 53 | |
Boy, that escalated quickly | |
| 52 | |
Unexpected by who? I actually like it. | |
| 51 | |
Wow, that was unexpected. | |
| 50 | |
Hah, yes, you are right. I would go back and edit it, but its too late. Now I feel bad :(
But I still think it there are ways to capture the discounts for the new loyalists. | |
| 49 | |
i'm sure you're aware, but i don't think its appropriate to say, "this board." who knows the real story, but i have to believe that the old board repurchased pfds and paid higher than necessary... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
Agree on those.
#4 is really interesting. Definitely makes me feel like there's an opportunity to buy those back at incredibly high discounts to face if that's true. I could even see bidding below the current... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
Cries pretty much already covered this, but at the time i posted that my thoughts were:
1) never going to trade at par, never going to get redeemed at par
2) recent tender for pfds was over... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Personally, no, which is why i own the equity here. Looking for a well-thought-out bear case on what a restructuring/liquidation of aeromexico would imply to PLM. | |
| 45 | |
yes, I'm aware of all that. Let me rephrase: do you see any risk of coupons being suspended (and never ultimately paid) and/or not getting par if Aimia were ever to be wound-up.
Sorry I was | |
| 44 | |
Just depends on how you discount the cashflows. They are perpetual, so the par value & dollar discount is an illusion. This isnt a bond. Its an equity dividend with no equity upside.
Call it what it... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
"acknowledging that the pfd's have to be accounted for somehow (i would argue well below face)" Why well below face?
I intro'd Aimia to this club back in 2016 pitching the Series 2 preferreds as... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
puppyeh - i'd absolutly love to see Buffett wind up owning Delta (as an Aimia shareholder) - although that seems unlikely since Trump will bigly backstop airlines... but just to play it out, if Buffett... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Reading MJS/puppyeh, here are some thoughts:
Even after this selloff, I’m struggling to find recession-resilient companies w/pristine balance sheets cheaper than AIM. Backing out its cash (less prefs), its PLM stake is being valued for only... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
MJS - thank you very much for the interesting thoughts re PLM, Aimia, and how it may play out. I guess I hadn't really considered renationalization as an option but conceptually I could see it... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
puppeyeh - i'd actually be curious to hear your thoughts on this question. I know from your other postings that you are heavily involved with AER and have argued that AER doesn't have to worry... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
what happens to PLM if Aeromexico files? arent they 6x levered heading into this Corona situation?
thx | |
| 37 | |
In case you missed it, please see the Q&A from Aeromexico's earnings call this week. Clearly, Aeromexico is no longer pursuing legal remedies or seeking to transition away from PLM. Quite the opposite. I think... login to read the rest | |