ADECOAGRO SA AGRO
June 27, 2019 - 7:42pm EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 6.90 | EPS | 0.7 | 0.92 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 117 | P/E | 9.9 | 7.5 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 805 | P/FCF | 210 | 250 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 774 | EBIT | 298 | 340 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 1,579 | TEV/EBIT | 5.3 | 4.6 | |||
Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 41 | |
Would be interesting to see how PBI will recognise those sales number. From press release, they are taking the inflated $125m figure. PBI is desperate for growth and with this acquisition net leverage will be | |
| 40 | |
Probably the only natural buyer and the only choice that Management had given how flimsy this business model is. Amazing that Pitney has to pay this much of a premium. | |
| 38 | |
BRDR announced an acquisition after the close today, buying something called DutyCalculator for over $20m in cash plus some large equity grants. It seems clear that the model is broken and that this deal will... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
mrsox,
Thanks for the brief update and hat tip for crushing it on the name. Any thoughts on valuation? Do you think sell-side analysts are still too high and thats how you win? | |
| 35 | |
The model is unambiguously broken with the USD at these levels. | |
| 34 | |
Macys announced restructuring the other day put a fair emphasis towards online sales. My guess would be that BRDR loses Macys as a customer over time or at least gets cut back on rate, as | |
| 33 | |
Macys just lowered their guidance - should be a tough xmas for BRDR | |
| 32 | |
updating the metrics as it has settled around $7.00 We have covered quite a bit but are still short. Tax loss selling could take this to $5.50
price: $7.00shares: 34.3m (fd)market cap: $240mnet cash: $130mEV: $110mreal... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Funny that you should mention Macy's. We heard (via a friend) from an employee who works on Macys.com that they use BRDR as a stop-gap (like all outside vendors) just until their internal team can... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Understood. Appreciate the color | |
| 29 | |
He specifically brought up the subject of Macy's. For Macy's what they sell into each of these third world countries is inconsequential to the overall business. For smaller retailers they don't have the brand awareness... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
mm202 -- I know you're only relaying what your friend / colleague said, but I'm confused by his statement re: retail customers' inclination to bringing business in-house, as the prospectus says literally the exact opposite:
"For example, during the quarter... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Using BRDR's guidance and only counting non pass-through revenues:
price: $8.75 (not sure where it opens)
shares: 34.3m (fd)
market cap: $300m
net cash: $130m
EV: $130m
real sales: $65 - $67m
EV to sales: 1.9x - 2.0x
Price to sales: 4.5x -... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Thank you for the feedback. The insider is overly optimistic. The stick trades for more than one times revenue net of cash. This is because the shipping pass through is not real revenue. The model... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
Great idea mrsox.
Fwiw, last week I had dinner with an insider who is a top 5 holder in the stock. I had shared with him some of your ideas and asked why they weren't selling. ... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Market slowly realizing that this isn't worthy of being a public company. | |
| 20 | |
Huge USD strengthening in the last 3 months. GBP/USD, USD/EUR and USD/AUD. This causes USD denominated products to be even more expensive in GBP, EUR and AUD and leads to lower sales and fees for... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
US-based courier firm United Parcel Service has acquired international e-commerce logistics solution provider i-parcel, as part of its strategy to bolster its logistics and technology capabilities in order to meet the demands of international customer... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
BRDR states their increased volumes will cause shiping prices to fall, thus sparking more sales. Funny how UPS disagrees.
From the WSJ:
UPS's average revenue on each Internet-related package it handles is dropping. Even though net income... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
USD vs EUR and CAD has to be hurting Borderfree as the already expensive when shipped products they sell in to Europe and Canada get more expensive for end consumers every single day. If the... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Yoox recenltly released a large roadshow presentation. It is noteworthy for its detail on:
- margins by segment
- extensive capex to execute on the business plan
- success in mobile ordering penetration
http://cdn2.yoox.biz/yooxgroup/pdf/yooxgroup_ny_roadshow_presentation_september_2014_vfinal_0.pdf
Key performance indicators, geography and currency... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
Starting to see some volume/liquidity in BRDR now that the IPO lockup has passed, for those VIC members that avoided the idea due to its thin and haphazard volumes. | |
| 14 | |
Currency fluctuations have two effects on the business. According to the Company, a weakening US dollar makes the price of merchandise more attractive to foreign buyers and serves to lift gross merchandise sales. Conversely, since... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
in the bloomberg video you cited, the CEO alluded to the fact that the korean won's strength was one of the reasons for the strength coming out of korea. I found that statement interesting since... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Apologies, for some reason (1) did not make it in. We have not been able to get to the true decision makers at the merchants in order to ask this question properly. Circumstantially, we have... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
Thank you for the compliment. I did not expect this idea to get a good rating. I think that people need to focus less on the growth and more on the sustainablity of the model/the... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
Shares are easy and cheap to borrow. The second half of your question seems to be geared at another post, if I am not mistaken. | |
| 7 | |
1) the EV/Sales metrics in the thread do not ignore the cash
2) Point taken. I don't like to short real growth companies with sustainable business models and actual technology. You will not find me shorting | |
| 5 | |
Since BRDR is on the hook for all chargebacks, payment pricessing failures, fraudulent transactions, and refunds for returns, what is to say that the sample size of their individual merchant revenues is even large enough... login to read the rest | |
| 4 | |
Thank you for your question.
This was sold to IPO investors with all of the key buzzwords:
- "global e-commerce"
- "segment leader"
- “spice routes”
- "e-commerce adoption rate higher outside the US"
The TAM may be infinite in principle,... login to read the rest | |