1847 GOEDEKER INC GOED
December 06, 2021 - 9:18pm EST by
member
| 2021 | 2022 | ||||||
| Price: | 2.00 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 106 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 212 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 28 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 240 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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| 65 | |
From their 2Q letter: "We exited Global Payments with a -6% IRR after we became uncomfortable with the company’s increasingly large adjustments to reported numbers and an abrupt CEO change."
Anyone have any insights here? GPN's... login to read the rest | |
| 64 | |
Anyone have any added color on Sloan's departure? He tried to crack jokes about it on the call ("Cameron would probably say, 'What took so long?'") and said he'll be "sitting on a beach in... login to read the rest | |
| 63 | |
That's more like it
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| 62 | |
insider open market buy/sells
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| 60 | |
Anyone know why this stock sells off every time they report? Volumes did not lag this Q. 11% constant currency volume growth at GPN, 10% at Visa, 11% at MasterCard. What is the sell-side unhappy | |
| 59 | |
finn -
If an 8% return is correct, I'm kind of not surprised. If you look at the deal table I posted in #47, they paid 17x LTM EBITDA for Blackhawk. The table says the NTM... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
Just saw this interview with Sloan from a few weeks ago. Said some things about Silver Lake he didn't say elsewhere. Sounds like EVO is the start of a B2B M&A spree that SLP will... login to read the rest | |
| 57 | |
So 25.6% net IRR on SLP IV 2013 fund and 1.80x Net TVPI. If fund life is 8 years, that would be ~8% CAGR on total capital from day 1. Is that math right? Some | |
| 56 | |
Yes, that is very true. | |
| 55 | |
No reason to ask. As I had said Sloan is super competitive and is always trying to position the stock in a light wall street likes.
I would just like to point out that there is... login to read the rest | |
| 54 | |
By the way full disclosure we had gone long here.
Oh no. When the skeptic goes long, the stock's going lower! I need to reverse and go short. ;)
I'm kidding.
Yes, the subpar growth in volumes is... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
Sure. V/MA had 15% US sequential growth (much more relevant than YOY) much more than GPN. Either way it was a joke-it was always crazy of them to compare to credit. At the end of the day... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
Is anyone familiar with Silver Lake's track record? | |
| 50 | |
Can you specify what the real bad credit comparison is? | |
| 49 | |
I don't know about their 2023 estimates and it probably assumes a lot of synergys not attainable as a standalone. I am seeing 150 ebitda 2021 and about 100 operating FCF against 4 bill ev-not that cheap... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
Hi,
Is anyone close with EVO? how is the quality of the business?
Why are they selling for 13x FY23 EBITDA? what does it mean for GPN's valuation?
Is it just cost synergy or real benefit in the | |
| 47 | |
Thanks for getting me to look more deeply into the newer entrants. I read through a few expert calls and, while the Street has concluded that the newer entrants will continually take share from the... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Here is the letter for those interested.
https://stripe.com/files/stripe-2021-update.pdf | |
| 45 | |
Thanks for the info.
GPN 2021 volume: 900B, YOY growth 20%
Stripe 2021 volume 640B, YOY growth 60%
Adyen 2021 volume 514B euros, YOY growth 70%
These fintech leaders are growing at unbelievable rates from big bases. Mathematically it's... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
Pg 5-this is for GPN 1st q 2019-1stq 2022
https://s21.q4cdn.com/254933054/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Global_Payments_4Q21-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
https://s21.q4cdn.com/254933054/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Global_Payments_4Q21-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
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| 43 | |
Daycin, can you please share the 2019-2022 volume/GMV metrics for the legacy players that you mentioned in post#34?
Thanks. | |
| 42 | |
Daycin - thanks. It now makes sense why some growth funds who used to own both Adyen and GPN, abandoned GPN. | |
| 41 | |
ust to pitch in on yxd's question, that graph is for 1st q 2020-tsys merger had happened already so its all inclusive.
1) Yes, Adyen has been very vocal about them taking share from all the... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
yxd- That's a good question on whether the slide is PF for TSYS. The footnotes don't say one way or the other. I'll follow up with them. As far as why they compare themselves to... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
yxd0950 ( hard name to pronounce)I honestly have no idea why they do it that way. It is probably mostly them trying to dispel the bear case (and it worked some sell side reports saying... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
Beethoven
You are taking things a bit too far in saying there is no bear case. There is definitely a big bear case here. The question is that it is also super cheap.
Just first, the fact... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
Is the GPN slide pro-forma growth given they have acquired Total Systems in Q4 2019?
And why are they comparing V credit volume to their whole merchant volume given that debit usage was way up during... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
Daycin,
Thanks for that detail. I'm curious to hear where you come out after you scrub your numbers.
I looked at the situation differently. I went back to the GFC to see how GPN performed. There's a... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
BeethovenI can tell you the exact way I calculated it. Just look at the total volume for the big three in the US from 1st q 2019 and match that to the total for the... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
Daycin,
How are you looking at the numbers differently than the company and the sell side?
From 1Q22 call:
Darrin Peller
I want to start off with the merchant side just because we're still seeing volume growth. Obviously [... login to read the rest | |